Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

Fair Value Measurements

Fair Value Measurements

6 Months Ended

Jun. 30, 2023

ASC No. 820, Fair Value Measurements and Disclosures (“ASC 820”), defines fair value as the price that would be received to sell an asset, or paid to transfer a liability, in the principal or most advantageous market in an orderly transaction between market participants on the measurement date. The fair value standard also establishes a three‑level hierarchy, which requires an entity to maximize the use of observable inputs and minimize the use of unobservable inputs when measuring fair value. The valuation hierarchy is based upon the transparency of inputs to the valuation of an asset or liability on the measurement date. The three levels are defined as follows:

•Level 1—inputs to the valuation methodology are quoted prices (unadjusted) for an identical asset or liability in an active market.

•Level 2—inputs to the valuation methodology include quoted prices for a similar asset or liability in an active market or model‑derived valuations in which all significant inputs are observable for substantially the full term of the asset or liability.

•Level 3—inputs to the valuation methodology are unobservable and significant to the fair value measurement of the asset or liability.

The following table presents, for each of the fair value hierarchy levels required under ASC 820, the Company’s assets and liabilities that are measured at fair value on a recurring basis (in thousands):


	June 30, 2023
	Fair Value Measurements Using
	Quoted prices in		Significant other		Significant
	active markets for		observable		unobservable
	identical assets		inputs		inputs
	(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)
Assets
Investments in money market funds*	$	5,042	$	—	$	—
Liabilities
Derivative liability	$	—	$	—	$	5,050


	December 31, 2022
	Fair Value Measurements Using
	Quoted prices in		Significant other		Significant
	active markets for		observable		unobservable
	identical assets		inputs		inputs
	(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)
Assets
Investments in money market funds*	$	12,133	$	—	$	—
Liabilities
Derivative liability	$	—	$	—	$	4,830

*Investments in money market funds are reflected in cash and cash equivalents on the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated balance sheets.

As of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, the Company’s financial instruments included cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, accounts receivable, other receivables, prepaid and other current assets, accounts payable, accrued expenses and other current liabilities, derivative liability and debt. The carrying amounts reported in the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, accounts receivable, other receivables, prepaid and other current assets, accounts payable, and accrued expenses and other current liabilities approximate their respective fair values because of the short-term nature of these accounts. The estimated fair value of the Company’s debt was approximately $10 million as of June 30, 2023 and is in Level Two of the fair value hierarchy (refer to Note 9 for more information).

Level 3 Valuation

The table presented below is a summary of changes in the fair value of the Company’s Level 3 valuation for the derivative liability for the six months ended June 30, 2023:


	Derivative liability
Balance at December 31, 2022	$	4,830
Change in fair value of derivative liability	220
Balance at June 30, 2023	$	5,050

In the fourth quarter of 2022, Avalo sold its economic rights to future milestone and royalty payments for previously out-licensed assets AVTX-501, AVTX-007, and AVTX-611 to ES Therapeutics, LLC (“ES”), an affiliate of Armistice, in exchange for $5.0 million (the “ES Transaction”). At the time of the transaction, Armistice was a significant stockholder of the Company and whose chief investment officer, Steven Boyd, and managing director, Keith Maher, served on Avalo’s Board until August 8, 2022. The ES Transaction was approved in accordance with Avalo’s related party transaction policy.

The economic rights sold include (a) rights to a milestone payment of $20.0 million upon the filing and acceptance of an NDA for AVTX-501 pursuant to an agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutics, Inc., (the “AVTX-501 Milestone”) and (b) rights to any future milestone payments and royalties relating to AVTX-007 under a license agreement with Apollo AP43 Limited, including up to $6.25 million of development milestones, up to $67.5 million in sales-based milestones, and royalty payments of a low single digit percentage of annual net sales (which percentage increases to another low single digit percentage if annual net sales exceed a specified threshold) (the “AVTX-007 Milestones and Royalties”). In addition, Avalo waived all its rights to AVTX-611 sales-based payments of up to $20.0 million that were payable by ES.

The exchange of the economic rights of the AVTX-501 Milestone and AVTX-007 Milestones and Royalties for cash meets the definition of a derivative instrument. The fair value of the derivative liability is determined using a combination of a scenario-based method and an option pricing method (implemented using a Monte Carlo simulation). The significant inputs including probabilities of success, expected timing, and forecasted sales as well as market-based inputs for volatility, risk-adjusted discount rates and allowance for counterparty credit risk are unobservable and based on the best information available to Avalo. Certain information used in the valuation is inherently limited in nature and could differ from Janssen and Apollo’s internal estimates.

The fair value of the derivative liability as of the transaction date was approximately $4.8 million, of which $3.5 million was attributable to the AVTX-501 Milestone and $1.3 million was attributable to the AVX-007 Milestones and Royalties. Subsequent to the transaction date, at each reporting period, the derivative liability is remeasured at fair value. As of June 30, 2023, the fair value of the derivative liability was $5.1 million, of which $3.7 million was attributable to the AVTX-501 Milestone and $1.3 million was

attributable to the AVTX-007 Milestones and Royalties. For the six months ended June 30, 2023, the $0.2 million change in fair value was recognized in other expense, net in the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive loss.

The fair value of the AVTX-501 Milestone was primarily driven by an approximate 23% probability of success to reach the milestone in approximately 4.3 years. The fair value of AVTX-007 Milestones and Royalties were primarily driven by an approximate 17% probability of success, time to commercialization of approximately 5.3 years, and sales forecasts with peak annual net sales reaching $300 million. As discussed above, these unobservable inputs were estimated by Avalo based on limited publicly available information and therefore could differ from Janssen and Apollo’s internal development plans. Any changes to these inputs may result in significant changes to the fair value measurement. Notably, the probability of success is the largest driver of the fair value and therefore changes to such input would likely result in significant changes to such fair value.

In the event that Janssen and/or Apollo are required to make payment(s) to ES Therapeutics pursuant to the underlying agreements, Avalo will recognize revenue under its existing contracts with those customers for that amount when it is no longer probable there would be a significant revenue reversal with any differences between the fair value of the derivative liability related to that payment immediately prior to the revenue recognition and revenue recognized to be recorded as other expense. However, given Avalo is no longer entitled to collect these payments, the potential ultimate settlement of the payments in the future from Janssen and/or Apollo to ES Therapeutics (and the future mark-to-market activity each reporting period) will not impact Avalo’s future cash flows.

No changes in valuation techniques or inputs occurred during the six months ended June 30, 2023 and 2022. No transfers of assets between Level 1 and Level 2 of the fair value measurement hierarchy occurred during the six months ended June 30, 2023 and 2022.

- Definition

The entire disclosure for the fair value of financial instruments (as defined), including financial assets and financial liabilities (collectively, as defined), and the measurements of those instruments as well as disclosures related to the fair value of non-financial assets and liabilities. Such disclosures about the financial instruments, assets, and liabilities would include: (1) the fair value of the required items together with their carrying amounts (as appropriate); (2) for items for which it is not practicable to estimate fair value, disclosure would include: (a) information pertinent to estimating fair value (including, carrying amount, effective interest rate, and maturity, and (b) the reasons why it is not practicable to estimate fair value; (3) significant concentrations of credit risk including: (a) information about the activity, region, or economic characteristics identifying a concentration, (b) the maximum amount of loss the entity is exposed to based on the gross fair value of the related item, (c) policy for requiring collateral or other security and information as to accessing such collateral or security, and (d) the nature and brief description of such collateral or security; (4) quantitative information about market risks and how such risks are managed; (5) for items measured on both a recurring and nonrecurring basis information regarding the inputs used to develop the fair value measurement; and (6) for items presented in the financial statement for which fair value measurement is elected: (a) information necessary to understand the reasons for the election, (b) discussion of the effect of fair value changes on earnings, (c) a description of [similar groups] items for which the election is made and the relation thereof to the balance sheet, the aggregate carrying value of items included in the balance sheet that are not eligible for the election; (7) all other required (as defined) and desired information.

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